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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2:05PM EDT (1805 UTC)
Saturday May 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 05N20W and 05N26W. The ITCZ continues from 05N26W, to 04N37W, to the Equator along 42W, to 01N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
A stationary front is in southern Georgia, to southern Alabama, through SE Louisiana, reaching the Deep South of Texas/extreme NE coastal Mexico. A surface trough is in the coastal plains of the upper Texas Gulf coast. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 27N northward from 92W eastward.

A NW-to-SE oriented inland Mexico surface trough passes through 20N100W, through the northern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to the Gulf of Honduras. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in the satellite imagery.

Fresh to strong NE winds are from 27N to 29N between 88W and 95W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to rough seas are from 24N southward between NW Cuba and the offshore waters of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico from 92W eastward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

Areas of haze and smoke from agricultural fires are in the Gulf of Mexico from 89W westward including in the coastal plains of Mexico; and in parts of the NW Caribbean Sea from 19N southward from 85W westward that includes in the Gulf of Honduras. The visibilities are being reduced in some cases.

A weak stalled out front extends from southeastern Louisiana to the extreme NE coast of Mexico. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are over the Gulf waters from Louisiana to the western Florida panhandle. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and north of the front. The front will transition back to a cold front and shift eastward across the northern Gulf through early Sun, then stall again and weaken gradually through Mon. Upper- level disturbances moving from W to E across the Gulf coast states will maintain active weather over the northern Gulf through the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin through early Sun, pulsing to locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche. Winds will slightly weaken Sun into early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, areas of haze and smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh SE return flow will develop again across the W Gulf Tuesday and Wed.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Areas of haze and smoke from agricultural fires are in the Gulf of Mexico from 89W westward including in the coastal plains of Mexico; and in parts of the NW Caribbean Sea from 19N southward from 85W westward that includes in the Gulf of Honduras. The visibilities are being reduced in some cases.

A surface trough is along 22N71W in the Atlantic Ocean, through the Windward Passage, to 14N76W in the central Caribbean Sea. Rainshowers are possible with this feature.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are to the east of the surface trough; and from 15N southward to the west of the surface trough. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are elsewhere to the west of the surface trough. Rough seas are in the Yucatan Channel, and in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 17N northward from 85W westward. Mostly moderate seas, with some areas of moderate to rough seas, are from 15N southward between 71W and 80W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 5 feet in much of the rest of the area. Some exceptions are for slight seas in the coastal waters of SE Cuba, and off the SE coast of Nicaragua.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N between 74W in Colombia beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 60 nm on either side of the monsoon trough.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 18/1200 UTC, are: 0.07 in Trinidad; and 0.06 in San Juan in Puerto Rico. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

A weak and narrow Atlantic ridge extends westward along 24N-25N into the NW Bahamas. The associated pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over SE Mexico is supporting fresh to strong SE winds across the Gulf of Honduras, and fresh to locally strong E winds in the south-central Caribbean. Strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will persist through Sun morning, reaching near gale-force this evening into Saturday morning and again Saturday night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia through Monday night. High pressure from the eastern Atlantic will build westward Wednesday and Wednesday night leading to increasing trade winds over most of the central and eastern Caribbean. Dense smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across areas of the northwestern Caribbean, and is significantly reducing visibility across the Gulf of Honduras.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Three separate surface troughs, and nearby rainshowers, are from 20N northward from 40W westward. Slight to moderate seas are from 21N to 30N between 30W and 70W. Moderate seas are elsewhere. Fresh to strong NE winds, with some moderate, are from 18N southward between 39W and 60W. Moderate NE winds are elsewhere from 23N southward between 37W and 60W. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE winds are in the remainder of the area that is from 40W eastward. Mostly gentle winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A frontal trough extends from 31N59W southwestward to 26N70W and northwestward to 30N80W. Clusters of scattered showers and thunderstorms continue along the front E of 65W. The cold front will move slowly eastward, and shift east of 55W early Mon, with active weather expected to continue ahead of the front through Sun. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are expected across most of the area through Sun night as weak high pressure extends E to W roughly along 24N-25N. A new front will sink southward into the waters offshore of Georgia and NE Florida early Mon, and move southeastward and weaken through late Tue. A residual trough may linger from near 30N71W to the central Bahamas Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Forecasters: Mike Tichacek, Jorge Aguirre-Echevarria, National Hurricane Center